Cut Back On The Volume But Keep The Quality
The supply to restaurants is down 30% in recent years as مواد غذائية بالجملة اون لاين took fewer trips there and spent more money on snacks, resulting in lower disposable income there. Which means that consumers needed to purchase $300-$ 500 worth of food just for what they required in restaurants. This is bad news for restaurants and those at the front of the pack. If you have been sending out invoices to your customers to cover your costs, then you know how many times a month you receive a blank check.
Is this the end of the road for your restaurant? I don't think so. There are two possible scenarios here. Either the demographics will shift and people start moving back to cities such as Los Angeles, resulting in a high volume of clients for your area; or your business can tap into a new customer base brought on by the advent of the new pandemic. In either case, you need to start planning your food system and marketing plan for the new consumer wave. The old paradigm of "food supply" and "marketing dollars" will not cut it anymore.
The first question is: What is happening to the food supply? We have seen this before in history when a pandemic arises (such as the flu in Seasonal Affective Disorder). A plague or a virus wipes out most of the population, cutting the food supply and causing prices to soar. This tends to force business owners to re-evaluate their strategies. In the past restaurants were able to survive these periods by re-farming existing crops for value added, labor-intensive products such as rice and noodles. Now the problem has changed.
The second question is: Will the pandemic come this year or will it hit in the fall of 2021? My forecast is that it will hit in the fall of 2021. That's because this year's planting season is so wet, and many of the countries that had higher than normal flu activity now have an outbreak. It could hit hard in the spring, but with so much rain this summer the dampness will be short-lived. With a wet planting season and warmer temperatures this fall, I predict we will see an overabundance of both fresh fruits and vegetables and a sharp increase in grocery shopping, as families prepare for the upcoming winter months.
What will impact restaurants the most? Currently, many restaurants are focused on food safety and making sure their food is as fresh and nutritious as possible. Because of this focus they aren't selling as much frozen and dried goods. While this does help some consumers, it doesn't create enough demand for the over-produced foods. Because many people find it difficult to make healthy, home-cooked meals, the restaurants that sell prepackaged, pre-cooked, frozen and dry food will do the best. This means they won't lose business if there is a sudden outbreak of flu or a local disease that require meat to be sold in small quantities.
The challenge for restaurants and for the grocery stores is how to move forward without creating a shortage of meat. The supply chain for restaurants is made up of many smaller contacts made by chefs, food manufacturers, deli owners, etc., that communicate quickly and efficiently with each other. However, the smaller fast casual chains also need to take advantage of this communication system between different producers and distributors to ensure they are meeting their deadlines, and they're meeting their taste profiles too.
The chain reaction that occurs within the supply chains affects all parts equally, affecting profitability in all sectors equally. As a result, restaurants and grocery stores are feeling the full brunt as prices for everything they sell go up. The combination of fewer sales, higher costs and slow profit margins mean restaurants and grocery stores can't make as much money as they did even just a few years ago. The two fastest growing segments in the food service industry are fast casual cuisine - the two types of restaurants typically focused on providing high quality fresh chicken and beef products.
Because the fast casual segment of the food service industry is experiencing higher volumes and lower margins than ever before, they can afford to be more picky about the type of meat they purchase. They can also spend more money per case on quality chicken and beef than they could in previous years. This has led to a proliferation of new manufacturers who are providing high quality meat at affordable prices, creating a very strong pushback against oversupply. It also makes the job of the supply chain manager for restaurants and grocery stores very challenging. However, by sticking to their strategy of taking one case at a time and by adjusting the way they buy in accordance with what consumers in their areas are willing to pay for fresh food, restaurants and grocery stores can continue to increase profit while cutting back on the volume of meat they purchase.